How to Interpret Speed Ratings
What Are Speed Ratings?
At their core, speed ratings are a measure of how fast a horse ran in a given race, adjusted for the specifics of the racecourse and environmental factors. Each major racing track or data provider (such as Beyer Speed Figures, Equibase, or Timeform) has its own methodology for calculating these ratings, but the fundamental goal is the same: to give a numerical value that represents a horse’s speed, allowing for easy comparisons across different horses, tracks, and conditions.
Typically, speed ratings are represented as numbers, with higher numbers indicating faster performances. This allows bettors to quickly compare horses based on recent races and see which horse has historically been faster or more consistent.
- Time – The actual time it took for the horse to complete the race distance.
- Track Conditions – Some tracks are inherently faster or slower, and weather can also impact track speed.
- Race Distance – Speed is normalized for different distances so that shorter races can be meaningfully compared to longer races.
- Class Level – The level of competition can affect race times, so some ratings adjust for whether a horse was racing against high-caliber or low-caliber competitors.
- Key Benefits:
- Consistency – A horse with consistently high speed ratings is more likely to perform well under varying conditions.
- Pace – Speed ratings can help you identify horses that start or finish strong, which can be essential for certain race strategies.
- Track and Distance Suitability – Horses have preferences, and high ratings at specific tracks or distances can be a strong indicator of future success.
- Compare Recent Ratings Across Horses
- Before placing a bet, look at each horse’s recent speed ratings to identify those in peak form. A horse that consistently posts high ratings is often a good betting option. However, it’s also essential to watch for trends. For instance, if a horse’s ratings have been improving race-by-race, it could indicate that it’s peaking and likely to perform well in the upcoming race. Conversely, a sudden dip in ratings might signal a potential problem, such as an injury or poor training.
- Assess Suitability to Track Conditions
- Some horses perform better on certain types of surfaces or conditions (fast, wet, turf, dirt). Speed ratings can reflect these conditions. For example, if you notice a horse has a high rating on wet tracks but lower ratings on dry tracks, it may be more favorable to bet on this horse on a rainy race day. Reviewing speed ratings in various conditions can help you identify horses that excel in particular circumstances.
- Look for Consistency in Race Distance
- Horses may also show a preference for certain distances. A horse with high ratings at shorter distances may struggle in a longer race, and vice versa. Speed ratings adjusted for distance provide a clearer picture of whether a horse is likely to excel at the race’s specified distance. If a horse has high ratings in the 6-8 furlong range, it may not necessarily perform well in a 10-furlong race, even if it has an impressive overall rating history.
- Factor in Class Drops or Jumps
- When a horse moves up or down in class (level of competition), its speed ratings can be telling. A horse that has a high speed rating when running against tougher competition might have a good chance of performing well when it drops down in class. Conversely, if a horse has only high ratings in lower-class races, it may struggle when facing more competitive fields. Observing how a horse’s speed ratings shift as it moves between class levels is critical for understanding its true capability.
- Spot Improvements or Declines in Form
- Horses, like athletes, can go through form cycles where they improve or decline. By analyzing changes in speed ratings over several races, you can spot horses that are trending up or down. Horses whose ratings are steadily improving might be in peak physical condition, while those whose ratings are declining could be tired, carrying a hidden injury, or otherwise struggling.
- Combine with Pace Ratings
- Pace ratings, which measure how a horse performs at different segments of a race, can complement speed ratings by showing you where the horse excels or struggles during a race. A horse with strong closing speed might be more competitive in races with fewer front-runners.
- Monitor Trainer and Jockey Impact
- Some trainers and jockeys are better suited to certain race types, distances, or tracks. Horses under experienced trainers or ridden by skilled jockeys can sometimes outperform their speed ratings due to race-day strategies or training routines.
- Use Speed Ratings with Handicapping Factors
- Other factors, like a horse’s post position, running style, and weight carried, can influence race outcomes. Use speed ratings alongside these handicapping factors to make a more comprehensive assessment. For instance, a high-speed rating may be less valuable if the horse has a poor post position in a sprint race.
- Overvaluing a Single High Rating – A single high rating doesn’t necessarily mean a horse is consistent. Look for horses that show strong ratings across several recent races.
- Ignoring Track Biases – Some tracks have biases that favor certain running styles or starting positions. A high-speed rating at a biased track may not translate to other venues.
- Not Considering Recent Changes – Pay attention to recent trainer or jockey changes, injury reports, or even weather forecasts, as these factors can impact a horse’s performance.